Value at Risk and What It Hides

Value at risk answers one question well and then stops at exactly the point where the question gets interesting. This course computes it three ways, then states plainly what the measure refuses to tell you about the day it fails.

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Six things you will be able to do

Go past the single headline number. Learn to compute it three ways, and to say what none of the three describe.

01 State the question preciselyA loss level, a horizon and a confidence, and what each choice commits you to.
02 Compute it three waysHistorical, parametric and Monte Carlo, on the same book, side by side.
03 Compare the three answersWhy they disagree, and which assumption each one is quietly making.
04 Look past the cut offExpected shortfall, and what the average loss beyond the threshold reveals.
05 Backtest the numberCount the breaches, compare them to what was promised, and judge the model.
06 Name the four blind spotsTail shape, correlation breaks, liquidity and the assumption of a normal day.
The outcome

What changes after this course

You stop quoting a single risk number and start stating its boundary, the days it covers and the day it was never built to describe.

Value at risk computed three ways on one book, with the differences explained

Expected shortfall calculated, so the tail is described rather than ignored

Four blind spots named out loud before the number is relied on

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